The Burning Crusade is throwing a long shadow, and already has a measurable effect on World of Warcraft, in spite of not being expected to go live for another 6 weeks or so. The reason is the beta, and tons of websites already posting the items you will be able to get in the expansion. And there are lots of items in the expansion which are significantly better than the loot you can get from Blackwing Lair, and a lot easier to get. Mudflation at its finest, the new items of the expansion devaluating the old raid loot.
Both Friday and Saturday I stood in BWL with 30 to 35 people of my guild, and not enough people of the right classes to even attempt Razorgore. Friday we ended up going to Molten Core, which was lucky, because I got my Gloves of Prophecy there, and now have 6 Prophecy, 2 Transcendence. Nice! But some guild members were online and simply refused to come to BWL, citing that they didn't want to bother wiping repeatedly in BWL any more, if they could get better loot easier in Burning Crusade.
And of course besides the loot effect, some people simply don't feel like playing the "old" World of Warcraft any more, now that the new one is on the horizon. Either they are playing the beta (like I do), or they are taking a break until the expansion comes out.
The effect on 40-man raids is profound. Guilds are usually designed in a way that they don't have too many reserves for raiding, that the 40-man raids just fill up. If some people burn out, take a break, play the beta, or just wait for better loot from BC, the remaining guild members often can't get enough people for the more challenging encounters together.
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