Guess the Cataclysm release date

It wasn't me! Elnia, second bartender of the Pink Pigtail Inn started it! She lists her arguments why she thinks that the third expansion for World of Warcraft, Cataclysm, will be released on February 1st 2010. Me, I think that is a bit too optimistic.

What is pretty much certain is that Cataclysm will be released in 2010. I do agree that there is a high probability that Blizzard manages to speed up their development process and needs less than 24 months between Wrath of the Lich King (released November 2008) and Cataclysm. The main argument for that hope is that patch 3.3 is already on the public test realms, and it has been said to be the last big content patch. It would be strange if we had to wait a full year between the last content patch and Cataclysm.

But February 1st? No way! I would think that we will get patch 3.3 between mid-November and mid-December, patch 4.0 in spring 2010, and Cataclysm in early summer 2010. And I think the key hurdle is patch 4.0: Unless Blizzard is changing their policy, the actual "cataclysm" will *not* happen on the release date of the Cataclysm expansion, but on the day patch 4.0 is released. Patches 2.0 and 3.0 both introduced all the changes that a player who would *not* buy the next expansion would experience. Thus there is a good chance that the zone changes to the old world will happen in patch 4.0, with the Cataclysm expansion then adding the new levels, new races, and new zones. Either way, as the changes to the existing content are major, I do think it will take Blizzard half a year between patch 3.3 and the Cataclysm release date.

So how about your best guess? When do you think the Cataclysm expansion will be released? And what arguments do you have to support your guess?