WotLK against WAR

This was supposed to be my "top 10 games of 2008" predictions post, until I realized that there will only be 2 top games in 2008, and one of them is an expansion. Yes, I believe only the Wrath of the Lich King (WotLK) expansion of World of Warcraft and EA Mythics Warhammer Online Age of Reckoning (WAR) will make a major splash in 2008. Of course there will be other games, like Pirates of the Burning Sea or Age of Conan, but their success will be limited. They'll all perform in the range between what Vanguard and Lord of the Rings Online did in 2007, that is between a total flop and "nice, but soon forgotten" with a quarter of a million subscribers max. Only WotLK and WAR will sell more than a million copies each. So lets have a look at these two big ones.

Wrath of the Lich King is a curious beast: On the one hand it is a no-brainer. Whatever quality level it has, it will sell 10+ million copies world wide. Yes, that is more than the current number of subscribers of WoW, but WoW is estimated to have a churn rate of up to 5% per month, so there are millions of players that could potentially come back for the new content. It is possible that WotLK will cause the total number of subscribers to break the 10 million line, but that depends a bit on timing, and how much later China gets the expansion than the western world does. On the other hand Wrath of the Lich King is critically important for Blizzard and WoW. The big risk here is extrapolation: Customers are going to see the first and second expansion, and those two will shape the expectations for the future expansions. If WotLK has only the features already announced, the extrapolation looks basically like this: "Every WoW expansion adds 10 new levels to the top of the game, resets the raid progress of everyone, and then provides a new set of raid dungeons for the top players". This image will be attractive to some people, but not to millions and millions of them. An increasing number of people will realize that they just bought yet another expansion, leveled yet another 10 levels in a few weeks, and got stuck in yet another end game not tailored towards *their* needs for another year. And then it will be really, really difficult to sell these people a third expansion. If Blizzard wants to create a WotLK expansion that will encourage most players to buy the next expansion as well, they will have to do better. They will need to make the end game more accessible to the average player, especially the raiding end game. And they will need to add more content targeted towards the average player, like player housing, new races, new classes beyond one hero class per year, and new content for all levels, not just the top.

Of course one man's risk is another man's chance, and that is where Warhammer Online Age of Reckoning comes in. WAR enjoys a clear marketing superiority over WotLK. Blizzard is making interesting advertising about WoW in general, including TV ads with Captain Kirk and Mr. T, but is remarkably silent about their next expansion. Since the original announcement half a year ago, there have only been a few screen shots released, and no new information. Meanwhile WAR is producing hype faster than they are progressing with the game. There are monthly newsletters, video podcasts, developers blogs, and constant announcements of major changes in response to beta player feedback. I have no idea how good WAR is really going to be. But I do believe it will sell over a million copies just based on everybody's expectation that WAR is the next big thing.

A lot will depend on timing. WAR could do extremely well if it comes out either at least a month before WotLK or at least 3 months after it. It will have a much harder time if it comes out at the same time as WotLK or shortly after it. That makes you wonder how much of this "we'll release it when it's ready" talk from both sides is just strategic maneuvering, with neither company willing to announce a release date too early and give the other company a chance to place their release better. The most likely outcome of this is that both games end up being released only in the second half of 2008. While Blizzard could seriously spit in EA Mythic's soup by holding out and releasing WotLK only in Q4 2008, they will hurt themselves as well, because it makes their "one expansion per year" promise look increasingly hollow. And the people suffering the most from "release date poker" are the players.

I don't expect WAR to be better than WoW, but it doesn't have to be. Customers are going to make somewhat unfair comparisons like "WotLK offers 1 new class, WAR offers 24 new classes", or "WotLK offers 1 new battleground, WAR offers a completely new PvP system". This is exactly where WotLK being more of the same will hurt WoW. Many bored WoW or ex-WoW players will at least give WAR a chance. That will not "kill" WoW, but it will be noticeable in WoW's earnings and profits. Which might actually be a good thing. Success makes complacent, maybe once a serious competitor makes itself noticeable Blizzard will steer away from that "more of the same" formula.